tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-53246864840716464.post2470212492770685423..comments2024-02-29T00:46:38.800-08:00Comments on Washingtons Blog: David Rosenberg: Gold is Rising Against ALL CurrenciesUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-53246864840716464.post-29973353802758358632010-05-16T07:51:33.018-07:002010-05-16T07:51:33.018-07:00One has to remember the Gold bubble of the 1980 as...One has to remember the Gold bubble of the 1980 as good guide. The gold price went from 200 to 875 withing a short period of time. Then It went down very quick to 200 - 300 range when people realized they were in big bubble. For the following 1980 - 2004 the Gold price had never recovered from the burst of the bubble and stayed below 400 level for 25 years.<br /><br />After the gold bubble of 1980 the price level ranged between 250 and 400 for 25 years. If we adjusted to the inflation level. We have the range become 250*3.73 - 400 * 3.73 which is 930 - 1492. but this i assumed that the inflation level over the 80 - 04 to now was 3.73 which is not true. Bank of england inflation calculator estimates this inflation level of 1980 to now at 3.73 and for 2004 to now as 1.17. Hence the range has to be adjusted. if we average the inflation level we have a range of 2.45 * 250 - 2.45 * 400 = 612 - 980. <br />- Therefore the realistic range could be for the next decade as 600 - 1000 if the history is going to repeat itself as it does often. <br />- When you hear the old folks like Jim Rogers or Soros saying the Gold price could go over 2000 USD. You can ask where this number comes from? But it is easy they just multiply the price of Gold at the HIGH of its bubble at 875 and the inflation level. Which 875 * 2.45 = 2143. But if we take the level of the inflation of 1980 the highest price could be even 875 * 3.73 = 3236 but this is the extreme case scenario.<br /><br />http://finance.yah...;asset=&ccode=<br /><br />This link is for David Rosenberg analysis of Gold market back to the begining of December 2009 when the Gold was making its high of 1229. He was at the time heavily Bullish. But during the following months when the Gold price was heading south Mr Rosenberg had disappeared from the radar. It is funny how those guys they come to the surface only when the prices are making new highs. But believe me when they make their call in the market they are often doing the opposite of what they say on the TV. They want fool crowds to buy their Gold positions at 1250!! So their Technics are often the same to scare people buying saying false truths. To justify their saying they cite Blomberg article! While the real truth is the market action.imadhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06072395301919350924noreply@blogger.com