Sunday, June 14, 2009
I spoke with the head geologist of one of the world's largest oil companies Saturday. He's the guy whose job it is to find new oil.
I said that I had heard that it's now official that we have peak oil. I asked him if that is true.
Yes, it is true . . . We are no longer on the ascending part of the curve.
In other words, instead of finding more and more oil reserves - the left side of the bell curve - we have hit the peak of oil extraction.
However, he said:
But it is a broad peak.
In other words, he was saying that we might remain at the top of oil extraction for a long time before hitting the right side of the bell curve - decreasing oil reserves.
Finally, I asked him whether the science is accurate within decades - as opposed to years. He said "that's right". In other words, while he thinks that we will remain at the peak of the bell curve for some time, no one is really sure whether world-wide oil production will start declining in a couple of years or a couple of decades.