Karl Denninger - who is always worth reading - shares 2 stunning charts which show the inverse correlation between the dollar and the Dow:
That is an overlaid chart (as close as I can easily get them to register) on the dollar and The S&P 500 from the March lows to today.
Notice the near-perfect inverse correlation. The Dollar goes up, the market goes down. The Dollar goes down, the market goes up.
Now today, literally minute-by-minute:
Same correlation - near-perfect.
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The underlying false premise of this article is that there is somehow -some palpable, even tangible value is a stock share issued by one of these bankrupt companies, or convoluted ETF swindles.
ReplyDeleteDoes anyone really believe that shareholders are along for some sort of sleigh ride over the hill and through the woods, to grandmother's house?
Read the back of a stock certificate. It states plainly the value of that piece of paper. It is usually expressed as, "1/100 of a cent" - as long as the business named on the front of the stock certificate hasn't declared bankruptcy.
And NOW, even -bankruptcy- is somehow optional if you have friends in high places.
None of this is doing much for the hunkered down for the long haul -consumer confidence- in this rapacious world of bankster hooliganism that is being funded by endlessly rising taxation as far as the eye can see into the nauseating future.
Hold on to what you have, Michael Rivero. Here they come again with the CHEESE WIZ!
If it's all a simple as everyone makes it out to be, How come I don't get it?
Karl, like Mish and Zero Hedge, are excellent at documenting problems but their libertarian solutions fall short, being based on the erroneous belief that the government can become insolvent or forced to default on its obligations. That is just false when the government is the monopoly provider of a non-convertible currency with flexible exchange rates.
ReplyDeleteMoreover the government is not revenue constrained and does not have to tax or borrow to spend. Borrowing and Fed reverse repo operations and purely fiscal operations that drain excess reserves so that the overnight rate doesn't go to zero if the Fed wants it higher. The government doesn't need to borrow at ZIRP. At this point, borrowing is just a fiction, which Bernanke and Geithner must understand if they aren't complete fool. If they are not complete fools, then they feel force to act by the erroneous "fiscal responsibility" meme that is so widespread, even though it bears no relation to national accounting.
While there no nominal fiscal or monetary constraints on the government, there are real constraints on currency issuance. Inflation will occur if government spending competes with the private sector for goods and services. But in an economy with an output gap of over 30% and double digit unemployment and widespread underemployment, that's not a problem and won't be for some time. Only when unemployment gets under control should the government begin to exit.
The other constraint is producing bubbles in isolated sectors. Instead of raising rates or cutting deficits in the name of "fiscal responsibility" while choking recovery and making the unemployed and underemployed suffer, such excrescences are better dealt with through targeted tax policies like a windfall profit tax.