I noted last week that there is a double-dip in housing.
Today, Nouriel Roubini agreed:
The country’s real estate problems are “underappreciated,” and banks could face another $1 trillion in housing-related losses, Mr. Roubini said in a phone interview with DealBook on Monday. At the same time, he played down the issues in Ireland, Greece, Portugal and Spain, calling the matter “contained” for now.
The United States “real estate market, for sure, is double dipping,” Mr. Roubini said. “The apparent increase in prices has been fully reversed, demand is falling, and supply is going to increase.”
As I've previously pointed out:
The failure to prosecute fraud and the stubborn drive to prop up the too big to fail banks at all costs is what has prevented real action that would have helped stabilize the housing market. See this, this, this, this, this, this, this, this and this.PhD economists John Hussman and Dean Baker (and fund manager and financial writer Barry Ritholtz) say that the only reason the government keeps giving billions to Fannie and Freddie is that it is really a huge, ongoing, back-door bailout of the big banks.
Many also accuse Obama's foreclosure relief programs as being backdoor bailouts for the banks. (See this, this and this).
I've said it before, and not had it posted here. And I'll say it again. People are dead wrong about this double dip analysis.
ReplyDeleteHousing has been DEPRECIATED.
Housing -no longer- can have the same value it had before the collapse, and this is only getting MORE TRUE -the longer and harder Bernanke pushes on the same idiot-rope.
Bernanke is never going to prop up the price of housing. The harder he tries -the lower housing prices will go.
The reason is simple, probably too simple for most to grasp. Try.
Proportionally the cost of many things has gone up. That's called inflation, or it would be if we weren't in a deflationary spiral.
BUT proportionally -the dwindling piece of the income pie- is being spent more and more on things other than housing.
The portion of income devoted to all sorts of things has gone up due to prices relatively rising. And- the increase in governmental regulation, fees, rising medical costs also are taking a proportionally bigger piece of the income pie.
So PROPORTIONALLY there is LESS disposable income -before housing costs are factored in-.
Now, the associative costs of owning a home have also gone up. And these aren't just fuel oil, property taxes, maintenance and repairs.
Other housing related costs also increase the cost of owning a home, commuting costs, water & sewer costs, the cost of increased crime and higher insurance costs.
All these costs also take PROPORTIONALLY a bigger piece of the income pie.
But WHO HAS GOTTEN A RAISE?
No one has gotten a raise.
At the same time -proportionally- there is less of an income pie to pay for all these increased costs, Americans are making less and less -every month-.
Housing, the sort of housing Americans live in -has simply lost its affordability. There are houses in my community that will never be lived in again. There are many of them.
They will not be lived in again, because no one can afford to live in them. Two of the nicest homes in town have been vacant for more than three years. They are owned by the banks.
People are living in FAR less than what is falling into ruin. The associative costs of owning some of these properties, is just no longer affordable.
It's not a question of desirability. The supply-demand scheme everyone is trying to wrap around housing just doesn't work any more.
The collapse is accelerating.
And as I said, people are living in less -much less- than what is falling into ruin in my community.
So, don't talk about a double dip. This has been one continuous downward slide that has been so fast, the little bump afforded housing by an $8000 tax credit means absolutely nothing in the bigger scheme of this debacle.
This Roubini may be very clever, even astute, but how much cleverness or astuteness helps when you're falling from such a great height, I can't imagine.
Mr. Roubini, if you're there, do you have any idea what percentage of Americans are losing their teeth before they are 30 now?
In the last ten years, that percentage of young people who are losing their teeth -has probably quadrupled-.
I don't know what world these double-dip prognosticators are living on, but it's one I haven't visited lately.
Yves Smith Author of EConned, has done some great work over at her blog Nakedcapitalism.com covering the malfeasance of the financial sector with respect to mortgage assignments, so called mortgage backed securities and the "titanic" nature of the problem. The web site 4closurefraud.org shows and explains with court documents the incredible dishonesty and fraud in the foreclosure business. Add the two together and you get the giant amorphous cloud on title sweeping across the country putting an immense chill on the housing market.
ReplyDeleteThe lack of a chain of endorsements on mortgage assignments, the failure to record those assignments, the failure to properly transfer and record notes, and the failure of attorneys to even check on what their clients and employees are doing has done unbelievable damage to housing and financial markets.