First Case-Shiller called a double dip in home prices.
Then Roubini said that the United States “real estate market, for sure, is double dipping”, and and predicted that banks could face another $1 trillion in housing-related losses.
Now Zillow is forecasting that U.S. home values are poised to drop by more than $1.7 trillion this year.
I'm not sure what the exact numbers are, but this looks like it's going to be grim.
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This is part of a necessary correction in home prices. They've got a LONG way to fall before they get back to where they should be.
ReplyDeleteThis is FAR AND AWAY -WAY MORE THAN A part of a necessary correction in home prices.
ReplyDeleteThis is like trying to sell housing in Europe after it was wracked by the Black Plague in the 14th Century.
There are no jobs, there is a vacancy rate approaching 30% in many areas, exceeding 95% in some urban areas -and- more people are looking out-of-work and rapidly aging every day.
I'm seeing kids in their 30's and 40's who have one foot in the grave -due to advancing social decay -having become victims of the credit-economy-rapacity -and the personal desperation epidemic in our paralyzed and shell-shocked society.
The rug has been pulled right out from underneath this generation. And the next generation has little more to look forward to.
The fault is not the housing industry.
The fault is not the bankers.
The fault is to be found in human perception.
In 1947 Arnold Toynbee said, "At the very beginning of the Study, after having argued, from the example of English history, that the history of a national state was not intelligible taken by itself and apart from the doings of the rest of its kind, we made the assumption that the groups of kindred communities which we called societies--and which we found to be societies of a particular species known as civilizations--would prove to be 'intelligible fields of study'."
Were Toynbee (who died in 1975 at the age of 86) my student, I would make every endeavor to try and get through his thick skull the impenetrable magnitude of the infinite complexity of reality.
Such an analysis as Toynbee found to be -intelligible-, the fact that he found it intelligible, is the problem we have with our perception.
Nothing of this magnitude of complexity is even remotely intelligible.
We are not gods.
The value of housing can only match some proportion of the value of the personal economies of the individuals who might purchase housing.
And right now, all our personal economies are in free-fall- with no end to the free-fall in sight.
No one should be surprised. The banksters have this all planned out. You have seen the act over the years unfold in front of you. We know that over appraising of real estate was part of the overall mortgage fraud scheme that took place. Even with the economy that we had, 50% over appraising was common, you know, a little bribe here and a little bribe there, everyone makes money except the schmuck.
ReplyDeleteWith the new Austerity economy coming on line and a 50 year estimate to rebuild our manufacturing industry base to where it once was before the banksters moved American manufacturing and jobs out of the country, the real estate value will probably drop even further. The 1.7 trillion losses for this year may be a small fraction of the actual damage.
They say a person can buy real estate in Detroit (and many other places) for filing fees and taxes! But wait, the illegal Mortgage Electronic Registration System is still in limbo so any title is questionable.