Wednesday, February 11, 2009
I have previously written about Martin Armstrong, the controversial market analyst who correctly predicted the 1987 crash, the top of the Japanese market, and many other market events. Many market timers think that Armstrong is one of the very best. On the other hand, he's in jail for fraud and an alleged Ponzi scheme. So I'm not sure whether Armstrong is a genius or a crank.
Armstrong has just written a cheery essay called "The Coming Great Depression. Why Government Is Powerless". In it, Armstrong forecasts:
We are facing a Depression that will last 23-26 years. The response of government is going to seal our fate because they cannot learn from the past and will make the same mistakes that every politician has made before them.
Leading economist Marc Faber has previously said that this will be worse than the Great Depression (indeed, he said yesterday “With the stimulus package the government is proposing, I think the depression will last longer"), and Faber's been calling for a slump lasting for somewhere between 2 and 15 years.
So I've steeled myself for a bumpy ride.
But 23-26 years is so long that it makes me laugh. Indeed, just as with warnings about killer asteroids, I'm filing it in the "oh come on, I've got enough on my plate already" folder.
Note: For more on market forecasting, see Do Elliot Wave and Other Predictive Stock Indicators Work?