Wednesday, July 1, 2009
Market Predictions from the Foundation for the Study of Cycles
The Foundation for the Study of Cycles was formed during the Great Depression to try to figure out why it happened. It was staffed and funded by leading intellectuals and business men of the day.
Right (they claim to have a very impressive predictive track record) or wrong (the Foundation was convened by Herbert Hoover before his bid for re-election, so he obviously didn't want the Foundation to look at problems his administration caused), the Foundation claims that market cycles could have predicted the Depression, as well as subsequent bull and bear markets.
Richard Mogey - current Research Director at the Foundation - has just publicly announced the following predictions:
- Because of a convergence of numerous cycles all at once, the stock market may go up for a little while, but will crash in 2010 and reach all-time lows late 2012. Mogey says that the 2008 crash was nothing compared to the coming crash
- Gold may correct in 2009, but will go up in 2010 and peak in 2011
- Silver will follow gold
- Oil may experience a short-term correction, but will form a major top in 2011
- The dollar will decline until at least 2012, although there might be short-term bear market rallies
- Interest rates on high-grade paper will decline later this year and continue declining until 2012
- Interest rates on low-grade paper could move higher for a while
Mogey argues that using the Foundation's cycles, investors can also make profitable intermediate-term trades based on shorter-term trends, and recommends using a 2% back stop (with the stop only pegged to the close of daily trading).
The Foundation claims that it has charted the cycles of individual companies' performance for 44 years, and says that it recommends shorter-term trades only on those companies that have the most consistent cycles.
Weiss Research, Inc. just announced that it has purchased the exclusive rights to the Foundation's data on individual companies, ETF performance and other metrics and has formed a joint venture called the "Foundation Alliance" to provide information and investment recommendations.
This could be the ultimate goldmine of investment insight, or a huge scam.
Note: I am not an investment advisor and this should not be taken as investment advice.
6 comments:
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I am skeptical of market models and predictions. Unseen billionaire financiers can cause the Fed to print money, raise the interest rate, choke off credit, etc. The Foundation can make it look like several mathematical trends are being analyzed, but who really know? A tyrants psychology within the heads of a handful... might crash us into economic oblivion- or not.
ReplyDeleteThere appears to be no real science behind the claims of the Foundation for the Study of Cycles. The Foundation has been appropriately criticized from its beginning, for a general failure to apply accepted statistical and scientific standards to its published work. Recent commentaries of its Director concerning supposed economic cycles that extend back into history for hundreds of years, are clearly lacking in any analytic rigor.
ReplyDeleteOne might as well consult a Doctor of Numerology.
How can gold peak in 2011 and the dollar decline until at least 2012? It doesn't make sense.
ReplyDeleteThe market cycle is caused by these bankers at all times when we had a gold standard prices were stable for extremely long periods. The bankers are evil and evil in all its greedy-ness for power and wealth always follows the same pattern. They cant help themselves greed is greed. Gluttony cannot be satisfied. We will end up as usual with hyperinflation(now on a global scale) the whole system will have to be cancelled and start again. But we will always need money GOLD AND SILVER WILL BE THE LAST MEN STANDING AS THEY HAVE DONE IN ALL OF KNOWN HISTORY. ANYONE WHO DOES NOT HAVE GOLD AND SILVER IS A MORON AND WILL BE ON THE BREAD LINE AND STARVING. AMERICA IS ABOUT TO BE TAKEN TO TASK BY GOD WHO ALLOWS THE EVIL TO TRIUMPH WHEN GOOD MEN DO NOTHING
ReplyDeleteI have been following the foundation for many years and it is based on research and mathematics. The cycles are natural events and decisions by powerbrokers folllow the cycle generally, if they buck the trend, it returns later on, it is natural event and extremely interesting. Most of the most influential thinkers and businessmen in the world believe in cycles. Just ask any older person if they think life has cycles to it.
ReplyDeleteHey Guys I have been watching the Foundation of Cycles also for a couple of months. I am interested in more than stocks and indices. Planets, earthquakes weather patterns etc etc you get the drill... I joined the Foundation to get the program licence ..... I have no data so I attempt to buy data from the Foundation.... 3 weeks later the wrong data arrives (BY EMAIL - How difficult is that seeing it is on line) BUT... I asked for "S&P to Date" data ... I get Dow from 1900 to 1931 .... That is not "S&P to Date" data . I ask for the data to be replaced with what was ordered ... No answer let alone any real data. These guys could be a CON and what a shame if they are .... As there are so many people like me who are chart heads... OR maybe I was lucky as I was prepared to go all out and get everything on offer for LIFE if a simple set of data was available and proved accurate against my information and analytical systems HEY I am already paying for the privilge to test the system .. HUHHHHHH I am still waiting and it is now 5weeks BUT they have taken my MONEY a small amount as it was ... AND I have received more emails from others in their sales department then I have from the people who who should send me the right info..
ReplyDelete