Thursday, July 22, 2010
Abandoning the Capped Oil Well: What Could Possibly Go Wrong?
What could possibly go wrong?
One expert warns that increasing pressure might have an unintended danger:
Bill Gale, a California engineer and industrial explosion expert who is a member of the Deepwater Horizon Study Group, said… that gas hydrate crystals could be plugging any holes in the underground portion of the well, and they could get dislodged as pressure builds.(Gale was formerly Chief Loss Prevention Engineer for Bechtel in San Francisco, obtained his undergraduate degree in Chemical Engineering, Masters in Civil Engineering and PhD in Fire Safety Engineering Science from the University of California, Berkeley. Gale is a registered professional engineer in both mechanical engineering and fire protection engineering, and has more than forty years of industrial loss prevention, process safety management, and fire protection/fire safety engineering experience.)
In other words, there may have been a destruction of a portion of the steel well casing which was temporarily plugged by methane hydrate crystals. Leaving the well cap may slowly raise the pressure in the well to the point where the hydrate crystals are dislodged, in which case the well might really start leaking.
Sound farfetched?
Maybe.
But remember that the "top hat" containment dome failed because it got plugged up with methane hydrate crystals.
And remember that there's a lot of methane down there. Indeed, while most crude oil contains 5% methane, the crude oil gushing out of the blown out well is 40% methane.
Although even less likely, scientists say that the methane could disturb the seafloor itself. As the St. Peterburg Times points out:
Disturbing those [methane hydrate] deposits — say, by drilling an oil well through them — can turn that solid methane into a liquid, leaving the ocean floor unstable, explained [Carol Lutken of the University of Mississippi, which is part of a consortium with SRI which has been conducting methane research in the Gulf of Mexico for years].
***
Generally the oil industry tries to avoid methane areas during drilling for safety reasons. But the U.S. Energy Department wants to find a way to harvest fuel from those methane deposits, Lutken said. [I've previously discussed that issue in detail.]
So what's the bottom line?
I am not predicting that anything bad will happen. Hopefully, when the storm is over and the underwater ROV submersibles return to the spill site, everything will be peaceful and stable.
But there are many variables such as methane hydrates which - in a worst-case scenario - could complicate matters.
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Suppose for a moment that the well is actually leaking.
ReplyDeleteThe oil and gas is finding its way into pathways that it cut through the compromised well bore, and over time, it slowly hollows out a space as the fluid flows.
The flow into the other geological structures get larger and larger, and those, may (who knows) in turn, seep.
From this logic, seeps can happen miles (many) away that are really from pressure in this reservoir.
The longer the pressure is on, the more likely that if there are other pathways it will punch its way through it.
It can end up creating a much bigger problem.
The real question raised by Simmons:
ReplyDeleteA second leak elsewhere.
So far, all we have to either prove or disprove it are the NOAA survey, which shows large scatterings of oil droplets.
NOAA documented this here:
http://blog.alexanderhiggins.com/2010/06/28/ixtoc-oil-spill-undeground-blowout-caused-oil-leak-cracks-seafloor/
A 3D view is seen here:
http://blog.alexanderhiggins.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/Thomas-Jefferson-Seafloor-Mapping-Clipped-275.jpg
Now, it is not as if this is a "sea" of oil, but droplets of oil dispersed undersea.
Is this real?
Where is it coming from?
Is there a "natural" seep that is suddenly greatly increased its output since the blowout?
Where is the science?
Someone who commented at Alexander Higgins blog used the following live graph of ship locations as evidence to support Matt Simmons claims:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.marinetraffic.com/ais/default.aspx?zoom=10&mmsi=636014465¢erx=-88.23762¢ery=28.56287#
I looked at this map of marine traffic yesterday and this morning (west coast) and the comment is correct that there are 2 groupings of ships. The groupings are separated in space. Why would there be a second grouping if not for a second significant leak on the ocean floor?
However, it looks as if the ships are moving back into shore because of the tropic storm so I'm not sure how long this will be evident on the graph...
The criminals (in your face) are in charge and there is nothing anyone can do about it.
ReplyDeleteTotalitarianism is here in the United States of America today and Democracy has been totally corrupted.
The World Banksters and Big Oil crime family in charge has successfully pulled off a multi-trillion dollar fraud on the American People; bankrupting our Treasury and enslaving us to debt, to them!
Not one corrupt government official or banker criminal has been brought to Justice and charged with fraud! Democracy has been totally corrupted.
By not bringing the criminals to Justice; they are now celebrating victory and emboldened with Totalitarian power.
Science, and the advancement in Science, to evolve technology away from the use of fossil fuels; is controlled and neutered; DOE and our Democracy has been totally corrupted.
Science? Any Plummer will tell you that if you leave a burst pipe capped that the flow will continue to flow out the breached pipe, undermining the ground around it and washing out the pipe. The flow will find its way through the strata to the surface. The flow is not stopped; it merely shows up uncontrolled somewhere else.
What BP is doing is not Science and a reasonable person will know that the oil well will wash out resulting in a greater catastrophe.
We are helpless victims. Our American Democracy has been totally corrupted.
Revolt and fight for our Democracy and you will be a terrorist and they have a plan for you in their Fascist secret police state.
http://projects.washingtonpost.com/top-secret-america/articles/a-hidden-world-growing-beyond-control/
http://www.wtsp.com/news/local/story.aspx?storyid=137989&catid=250
ReplyDeleteUSF: Underwater oil came from BP well
Here's the official information we received from USF:
ST. PETERSBURG, FLORIDA (July 23, 2010) - University of South Florida researchers have definitively connected clouds of degraded underwater oil found in the northern Gulf of Mexico to the Deepwater Horizon well through a chemical fingerprinting process.
The confirmation by USF chemical oceanographer David Hollander is the first direct scientific link established between the subsurface oil clouds - commonly known as "plumes" - and the massive BP spill. Scientists had gathered ample circumstantial evidence to link the subsurface oil to the Deepwater Horizon well, but had lacked a definitive scientific link until now.
Hollander's findings came after extensive rounds of testing water samples gathered during a May 22-28 cruise of the R/V Weatherbird II to the northern gulf against samples of oil provided by BP in June.
"What we have learned completely changes the idea of what an oil spill is," Hollander said. "It has gone from a two-dimensional disaster to a three-dimensional catastrophe."
The criminals (in their face) are in charge and there is nothing anyone can do about it.
ReplyDeleteTotalitarianism is here in the United States of America today and Democracy has been totally corrupted.
The World Banksters and Big Oil crime family in charge has successfully pulled off a multi-trillion dollar fraud on the American People; bankrupting our Treasury and enslaving us to debt, to them!
Not one corrupt government official or banker criminal has been brought to Justice and charged with fraud! Democracy has been totally corrupted.
By not bringing the criminals to Justice; they are now celebrating victory and emboldened with Totalitarian power.
Science, and the advancement in Science, to evolve technology away from the use of fossil fuels; is controlled and neutered; DOE and our Democracy have been totally corrupted.
Science? Any Plummer will tell you that if you leave a burst pipe capped that the flow will continue to flow out the breached pipe, undermining the ground around it and washing out the pipe. The flow will find its way through the strata to the surface. The flow is not stopped; it merely shows up uncontrolled somewhere else.
What BP is doing is not Science and a reasonable person will know that the oil well will wash out resulting in a greater catastrophe. We are helpless victims. Our American Democracy has been totally corrupted.
Revolt and fight for our Democracy and you will be a terrorist and they have a plan for you in their Fascist secret police state.
http://projects.washingtonpost.com/top-secret-america/articles/a-hidden-world-growing-beyond-control/
Screw Them and their Totalitarian Fascist Police State!
Our American Democracy, government for and by the People, has been overthrown and we the People must overthrow them to regain our American Democracy and main free.
Nationalize Wall Street World Bankers, Insurance rackets, and Big Oil.
Interesting.
ReplyDeleteHow would a portion of the steel plate be destroyed? I haven't done the math on this yet, but I would assume it would require a large amount of force, and it would rip out large portions of the steel plate at once.
Could the methane hydrate crystals plug up a large hole without being swept away?
If course, this hinges on the fact that only large holes could occur in the steel plate at this time. It's possible smaller holes might be formed.