Wednesday, February 11, 2009

Now THAT'S Depressing: "Depression Will Last 23-26 Years"


I have previously written about Martin Armstrong, the controversial market analyst who correctly predicted the 1987 crash, the top of the Japanese market, and many other market events. Many market timers think that Armstrong is one of the very best. On the other hand, he's in jail for fraud and an alleged Ponzi scheme. So I'm not sure whether Armstrong is a genius or a crank.

Armstrong has just written a cheery essay called "The Coming Great Depression. Why Government Is Powerless". In it, Armstrong forecasts:

We are facing a Depression that will last 23-26 years. The response of government is going to seal our fate because they cannot learn from the past and will make the same mistakes that every politician has made before them.

Leading economist Marc Faber has previously said that this will be worse than the Great Depression (indeed, he said yesterday “With the stimulus package the government is proposing, I think the depression will last longer"), and Faber's been calling for a slump lasting for somewhere between 2 and 15 years.

So I've steeled myself for a bumpy ride.

But 23-26 years is so long that it makes me laugh. Indeed, just as with warnings about killer asteroids, I'm filing it in the "oh come on, I've got enough on my plate already" folder.

Note: For more on market forecasting, see Do Elliot Wave and Other Predictive Stock Indicators Work?

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5 comments:

  1. ErinAndBradFebruary 11, 2009 at 8:30 PM

    All I can say is "oh boy."
    Ernie

    ReplyDelete
  2. AnonymousFebruary 17, 2009 at 10:43 AM

    Well, who is to say if this is not possible. Nobody knows the future. To think that we are immune from such consequences is not completely out of the question.

    I'm just glad I've still got Canadian and German citizenship; things are probably going to be worse here in the USA than anywhere else, I can tell you that.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Kenneth StremskyFebruary 17, 2009 at 4:02 PM

    People may want to read

    "The Joys of Hyperinflation" by Gary Gibson

    http://www.whiskeyandgunpowder.com/the-joys-of-hyperinflation/

    I discuss dealing with the financial crisis and other topics on

    http://www.newgeography.com/users/kenstremsky

    Sincerely,

    Ken Stremsky

    ReplyDelete
  4. UnknownFebruary 18, 2009 at 9:10 PM

    Retirees need the depression to go on forever.They cannot have rising prices with these no interest rates of Bernake.

    ReplyDelete
  5. AnonymousMarch 8, 2009 at 11:33 AM

    Which is why the rich have been buying up homes and land in tiny little countries abroad like children in a candy store.

    They get to watch the whole thing unfold on their big screen plasma tv's from a safe place outside of the U.S

    ReplyDelete

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