Thursday, September 10, 2009
Roubini: The World Faces a "Rising Risk" of a Double-Dip Recession
Nouriel Roubini recently told The Financial Times (as summarized by Huffington Post):
The world faces a "rising risk" of a double-dip recession.
Roubini's increasingly vocal about the risk of a recession relapse in the past few weeks...
"I do agree with the consensus that we'll have a couple of quarters of strong economic growth. The question is whether the medium-term growth is going to be V-shaped a return to potential or anemic growth below potential. My view of it is that it's going to be anemic."
Towards the end of next year, Roubini added, advanced economies could face a tough choice. Namely, if governments withdraw fiscal and monetary stimulus too early, the economy could fall back into another recession. On the other hand running up large deficits could lead to stagflation.
(Watch the FT interview here).
Roubini joins Joseph Stiglitz and many other economists and financial analysts in warning of a double-dip.
1 comment:
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Posts
Roubini talks and the world listens, thanks to his previous predictions.
ReplyDeleteI don't think anyone can tell the future. Roubini's climb to the top of the mass media heap is quite an accomplishment, and one awarded long after it was due.
Bestowing celebrity on Roubini, or Schiff for that matter, doesn't grant them the likelihood of being right about future events.
Saying a double dip is possible is economicspeak for I don't know. I do suspect that broader demographic trends are behind much of the slowdown. Growth will vary from region to region. Gov't spending will bring inflation in the longer term though, I think this is the consensus.