Could a Third-Party Candidate Actually Win in 2012? → Washingtons Blog
Could a Third-Party Candidate Actually Win in 2012? - Washingtons Blog

Friday, August 21, 2009

Could a Third-Party Candidate Actually Win in 2012?

Famed trend forecaster Gerald Celente is predicting that a third party candidate will be elected President in 2012. (If you don't know who Celente is, read the postscript below.)

Is he right?

Well, some of the most widely-read liberal writers are saying that progressives are fed up with the Democratic party, and feel that they have been tricked and ripped off by the Democratic leaders.

As Glenn Greenwald writes:

In a superb post the other day, Digby recounted what fueled the Naderite movement in 2000 and warns, presciently I think, that the willingness of Obama/Emanuel so blatantly to disappoint those to whom they promised so much (especially young and first-time voters who were most vulnerable to Obama's transformative fairy dust) will lead them either to support a third party or turn off from politics altogether:

Rahm Emanuel believes that the key to Democratic success is a coalition in which Blue Dogs and corporate lackeys mitigate progressive change on behalf of the moneyed interests which he believes the political system must serve. Regardless of his malevolent view of how the political system should work, on a political level, I think he's living in the past. . . .

But on a political level, the left has been betrayed over and over again on the things that matter to us the most. The village is pleased, I'm sure. But the Democratic party only needs to look back eight short years to see just how destructive it is to constantly tell their left flank to go fuck themselves. . . .

At the time [in 2000] nobody believed that an incumbent Vice President in a roaring economy would have a race so close that the Republicans could steal it. But we know differently now don't we? And you would think that the Democratic establishment would also know that because of that, it may not be a good idea to alienate the left to the point where they become apathetic or even well... you know. It can happen. It did happen. Why the Democrats persist in believing that it can't happen again is beyond me. . . .

Obama mobilized a whole lot of young people who have great expectations and disappointing them could lead to all sorts of unpleasant results. Success is about more than simply buying off some congressional liberals or pleasing the village. It's worth remembering that a third party run from the left is what created the conditions for eight long years of Republican governance ...

After 2000, what is it going to take for the Democrats to realize that constantly using their base as a doormat is not a good idea? It only takes a few defections or enough people staying home to make a difference. And there are people on the left who have proven they're willing to do it. The Democrats are playing with fire if they think they don't have to deliver anything at all to their liberal base --- and abandoning the public option, particularly in light of what we already know about the bailouts and the side deals, may be what breaks the bond.

It's really not too much to ask that they deliver at least one thing the left demands, it really isn't. And it's not going to take much more of this before their young base starts looking around for someone to deliver the hope and change they were promised.

On most fronts that matter -- civil liberties, national security, economic policy, servitude to corporate interests, even rising opposition to Obama's long-promised escalation of the war in Afghanistan -- that defines rather clearly what the Obama/Emanuel approach has been thus far.
What About the Right?

The Washington Examiner writes:
The fact that just doesn't register with Washington GOP establishmentarians is that the Tea Party Protests seen around the country in April were aimed as much against them as they were against the tax and spending policies of Obama and the Democratic Congress.
There are millions of libertarians and traditional conservatives (or "paleo-conservatives", in contrast to Neo-conservatives) in the U.S. who are very unhappy with the direction the Republican party has taken in recent years.

Post-Partisan Coalitions

There are many millions of liberals and conservatives who have become disgusted by their parties and have started judging candidates based upon what they are actually doing.

As just one example, there are millions of Americans who would support either Ron Paul as president and Dennis Kucinich as vice president or the other away around. Why? Both challenge the status quo, and have proposed legislation which will actually help the American people.


Based on the above trends, I believe that Calente could be right. A third-party candidate could win in 2012.

Postscript: Here's what people have said about Calente over the years:

"When CNN wants to know about the Top Trends, we ask Gerald Celente."
— CNN Headline News

"[Calente is supported by] a network of 25 experts whose range of specialties would rival many university faculties."
— The Economist

"Gerald Celente has a knack for getting the zeitgeist right."
— USA Today

"There’s not a better trend forecaster than Gerald Celente. The man knows what he’s talking about."

"Those who take their predictions seriously ... consider the Trends Research Institute."
— The Wall Street Journal

"Gerald Celente is always ahead of the curve on trends and uncannily on the mark ... he's one of the most accurate forecasters around."
— The Atlanta Journal-Constitution

"Mr. Celente tracks the world’s social, economic and business trends for corporate clients."
— The New York Times

"Mr. Celente is a very intelligent guy. We are able to learn about trends from an authority."
— 48 Hours, CBS News

"Gerald Celente has a solid track record. He has predicted everything from the 1987 stock market crash and the demise of the Soviet Union to green marketing and corporate downsizing."
— The Detroit News

"Gerald Celente forecast the 1987 stock market crash, ‘green marketing,’ and the boom in gourmet coffees."
— Chicago Tribune

"The Trends Research Institute is the Standard and Poors of Popular Culture."
— The Los Angeles Times

"If Nostradamus were alive today, he'd have a hard time keeping up with Gerald Celente."
— New York Post


  1. Absolutely Celente is right. We know what Bush gave us , we know what Obama promised us, it's beginning to look like we won't get the promises along with a lot too much of the same ole crap. It's even more apparent today that We The People are not in the picture at all. The Powers That Be intended to screw us all along as others have pointed out this in intentional not an accident or stupidty but a planned reduction of the world to peasant status . You mention Paul and Kucinich I like both ,but Paul turns me cold on his Libertarian social programs his economics is good. Dennis on the other hand I can and will support again. He doesn't seem to be able to gain much support (maybe because he's a runt like me) but he is absolutely right on economically and socially. Besides his wife is hot!!

    Beyond tthose two I'd be interested in seeing more names who you think would be good

  2. I donated money to, my family worked for, and my wife and I voted for Obama. That was a major mistake on my part. I will be donating and working for a third-party candidate in the 2012 election. I've had it with both major parties for the remainder of my life. To see the level of criminal fraud that has gone on in the FIRE sector of the economy be rewarded instead of eradicated is the most disheartening and disillusioning event of my life and I am not a young person.

  3. Peter Schiff will be running for a senate seat against Chris Dodd. This will be a test to see if Americans still have the blinders on.

  4. Should have had Ron Paul last time. If they hadn't shouted down the article on the dummies underground titled..

    obamas money cartel

    They would have realized he is a FASCIST creep.

  5. I started as a "Decline to state" (how Californians declare as independent), was suckered into Clinton's rhetoric and then bailed back to independent, but I'm going Green now. I'll back Dennis Kucinich and Ron Paul in primaries, but absent their ascension I'll give my vote to Cynthia McKinney.

  6. Libertarians are all basically -followers.

    I have read "Human Action, A Treatise on Economics" -cover to cover. It is twaddle.

    Libertarians would vote for a dog, should it merely run for office and promise to, "Woof! Woof!" Libertarian minds are not critical. Libertarian minds are merely malleable.

    For those whose real intent is to make a better world, voting holds no answer.

    If anyone wants to make for a better world, they must first look at what it is they are doing that gives succor to those immoral things they oppose. There are plenty. And, getting on a political bandwagon of any sort -is always just encouraging the problem.

    The only vote that can help at all is a vote against something. Voting against bond issues is a good start. Do not be fooled by government's wording of any bond issue. They are all a waste of resources and an invitation to corruption.

    In many cases the only money that will ever change hands as a result of auto purchases made under the Cash for Clunkers program -will be the money the government kicked in. That's human nature, and the auto dealers encouraged it.

    Many voted FOR Obama, thinking they were voting AGAINST something. Their mistake is obvious to all now. You voted FOR Obama, if you voted for Obama.

    Libertarians -for the most part- voted for Obama. "Woof! Woof!"

    Similarly, if you vote for a third party candidate, do not think you are voting against the other two parties. You will only be voting for a third party candidate who will be as big, and likely a bigger, disappointment -because YOU voted for him or HER...

    Show me a candidate who is fit to lead any of us. -They do not exist.

    "Step out of the sunlight that warms my body, Alexander." -Diogenes.

    No. If you want to change the world for the better, your best approach is to stop providing support to that which is immoral -in your book.

    This requires NOT DOING THINGS. It does not require DOING ANYTHING.

    The first thing you can do, is to stop following. -Learn to say, "No." with your lifestyle and your pocketbook, -with your dreams, and with your desires.

    THAT is called, freedom.

  7. The Libertarians are the only third party with anything near 50 state ballot access, as hard a time as we had, I don't think I see the greens pulling it off. I'm a citizen of NC and let me tell you, it was a bitch to get on the ballot, and the republicrats fought us every inch of the way. Maybe some "leftist" libertarian like Micheal Munger, last years Libertarian candidate for Governor in North Carolina, could be the answer. He is the department chair of political science at Duke university (and a really nice guy). Anyway he told me he got tons of support, and money, from the socialist faculty types at Duke. He said that they supported him because in many ways he was further to the left than the Democrat gubernatorial candidate. Maybe now that Obama has revealed himself as the forth Bush brother, they can bring themselves to vote against the black guy.
    As far as a major party candidate. If Ron Paul is healthy enough to run in 2012, electing him may be the country's last chance to stay in one piece. By the way, I like his social programs. In one sentence they are, let people live the way they decide to live. If you decide to screw up your life, you will not be stopped. A sound economic policy, based on hard money will lead to full employment. If you are too good to get a job when they are available, I have little pity for you. If you can't work, private charities are a lot better at directing help to people who actually deserve help, than government bureaucracy

  8. Obama supporting TARP was enough to drive me to vote for Ron Paul (he truly was the only credible candidate who could balance a check book).

    Only now as we look to a future beyond one term wonder Obama, the issue becomes ... what will it take to prevail?

    Granted the two major parties are dinosaurs, but what can surplant them?

    To my way of thinking, the sucessful third party candidate will have these characteristics:
    1) be articulate & charismatic
    2) be able to read public mood and work it to advantage
    3) have some sort of intial stepping stone/benefactor to gain initial visibility (hopefully without selling their soul (eg...Obama to Goldman Sacks).

    Those are just the basics.
    Eliot Spitzer was a contender.. well at least till he tripped over his d...). Too bad.

    There's 300 million people in the US. Surely we can find one to lead us

  9. Quite interesting and informative. Thanks for sharing.

  10. I agree with his analysis also. I doubt the following was an actual news story but What the Hell is going on in Arkansas?

    Arkansas Us Senate 2010 Analysis
    -DC Monthly Political View -August 20, 2009 - Republican Party Chairman Michael Steele’s instructions today to the State GOP about strategies on how deal with independent US Senate office seeker Trevor Drown have many local republicans unhappy. Steele, in Little Rock today, met with Doyle Webb and other members of party leadership. First item on the agenda: secure the US Senate seat held by democrat Blanche Lincoln. Polls show Lincoln, who is running for her third term has little to no support across all groups. Normally this would provide the GOP the ability to pick up a senate seat. But there are problems. The first is a major negative view across the state for republicans. Adding to their problems are continuous racist comments, and a lack of focus. There is also concern the state party is in the red, and may be in financial trouble with a net loss of $108,000 in the last 12 months
    Another key player in this election will be the Green Party. Failure to provide someone this time could result in the Republican Party downgraded to a minor party. This will result in the loss of an automatic position on the 2012 ballot for all republicans and the will have to gather 2,000 to 10,000 signatures to even get on the ballot.
    Speaking of signatures, according to inside sources present at the meeting, Michael Steele named former Green Beret Trevor Drown, the number one threat to the Republican Party. He has the looks, brains, leadership style and the support of the people in Arkansas. A grassroots movement, already underway has worried many GOP leaders since it is expected he will easily get the required 10,000 signatures by May 2010. When it was discovered members of party leadership had tried to recruit Drown and he turned him down, heads were shaking and many at the meeting heard Steele mumble that was “bad, very bad.” Things got a little heated when it was mentioned once he had turned them down; members of the party attempted to discredit Drown. These two also hold statewide offices and combined their efforts with a local blogger to discredit Drown.
    One staffer from the GOP D.C. office was heard to say, this is what is wrong with you people. You still think this is the 19th century. You need to ignore, him, never mention his name never acknowledge him. If you recognize his existence you elevate him to our level. The need to take him out will happen only if he gets the signatures next May.
    There were a few moderate republicans unhappy with how the state party has handled the Drown affair. Targeting a veteran of the Global War on terror did not sit well with them. Internally, party support is already waning and infighting is increases daily due to the GOP’s silent nod of approval already given to Curtis Coleman.
    The greatest cause for concern was the sudden interest in Drown from the left. Down with Tyranny, a renowned west coast blogger on liberal values has interviewed and written four articles in the last week, praising Drown’s credentials, open mind and honest talk. The ties between Down with Tyranny and ActBlue, the online clearing house for Democrat Action, are well known. No fan of Senator Blanche Lincoln’s stance on health care and card check in the last 72 hours ActBlue has raised over $300,000 from its supporters to support their various candidates.
    This next election could be the start of a rising force in this country, the Independent. Arkansas will be one of the battleground states. When one looks at the numbers and realizes only 55,000 registered voters are democrats, 45,000 republicans and the remaining 1.6 million are registered as optional or independents, political strategists know it is time to worry. The political winds are changing in Arkansas. Consequently, we are predicting that Trevor Drown looks like the strongest contender at this point.

  11. it's CELENTE. not CALENTE.

  12. The article's title presupposes that there will be a country to have an election in. One certainly hopes not. Certainly not in its present form. That said, the oligarchs won't allow a third party candidate to upset their very profitable apple cart.

    Schiff is no leader for a country. He's of that peculiar certifiably sociopathic Fuck You Capitalist bent of the Libertarian movement. Precisely what got us where we are now.

  13. If we don't stand up to this Swine Flu Farce we'll never see 2012. I'm a former FEMA employee. The Department of Homeland Security runs FEMA and the Military runs DHS. They've been planning this bad boy for a long time and have covered all the bases. Bush signed over our sovereignty to the UN in the event of a pandemic, phony or otherwise. DHS dangled money in the faces of greedy states/cities and law enforcement who have sold out their citizens for cash and tasers and other paramilitary toys. These people (?) mean business. Yes they’re bad but we’re bigger. The ratio of citizens to law enforcement/military is about 5000 to 1. We can stop them peacefully by a show of numbers. Just look at how frightened the members of Congress became at these town hall meetings on Obama Care when citizens spoke up. Do not go quietly into that bad night! And for all you cops, soldiers, DHS and shot wielding medical personnel who will just be following orders; you might want to do a search on “The Night of the Long Knives”. Your usefulness will expire the second you complete your treasonous orders against you fellow countrymen.

  14. Both parties have failed the American people miserably. For the most part, most of America is in the middle, not the extreme left that's running the country right now. If those people in our government were doing the job they are supposed to be doing, Congress wouldn't be in session half the time because they wouldn't have anything to do but go work in the private sector. Federal laws shouldn't be created by special interest groups. How did we ever get there in the first place?? The House and Senate are supposed to be creating the laws, not special interest groups. If you ask me, there's been some major treason happening here that needs to be dealt with...

  15. 5000:1 is the ratio of law enforcement to citizens? Its ALLOT worse than I thought! Get Out While You Still Can !!!!

  16. I'd vote for a third-party progressive ticket of Al Franken and Rachel Maddow in either order. But no third party candidate is going to win. The system is set up to prevent it.

  17. Third party will never win because the electoral college: Electors are not required by federal law to honor a pledge, however in the overwhelming majority of cases they do vote for the candidate to whom they are pledged

  18. And it's blinkers, not blinders, for God's sake.

  19. I go with Oregon Guy. I'm a Libertarian who voted in the end for Obama. Not next time. Major disappointment even before he was sworn in. Geithner? Summers?? What kind of nonsense was that (now we see)?
    I've started giving to Alan Grayson in FL, Peter Schiff, still some to Ron Paul--and then I email my local congresspersons and tell them I donated to strangers.
    I would welcome a 3rd party.
    And I propose a CLEAN SWEEP program for 2010: any elected official who supported the bailouts is HISTORY, GONZO No matter if s/he's a 'nice' person, does good things here and there, has seniority. GONE HISTORY
    They might get the message.

    Let's pass it on and start a CLEAN SWEEP MOVEMENT

    Get the broom. . .

  20. I voted for Nader last November and Bill Richardson in the primary -- they are the only two who ever talked about universal/single-payer health care or ending war in Iraq & Afghanistan. I told everyone I knew that Obama would be the same as Bush & Clinton and now I waste no opportunity to say "I told you so." The next successful Nader-like candidate will target disenfranchised youth who voted for Obama and the next crop of idealistic students. He won't win, but maybe he'll scare the bejeezus out of the Democrats...

  21. i have been hoping for a third party for 15 years. i would welcome one!

  22. A third party candidate could win if they campaigned on issues some disappointed republicans and disappointed democrats agree on, for example, no bail-outs, no corporate welfare, leveling the playing field for investors, enforcing the banking regulations on the books.

  23. Big suprise 2012
    A Third Party Emerges In The United States- When Obama's first and last term ended the American public was fed up with anything that had to do with the elite- Wall Street, the big banks, Congress, the Senate, the Federal Reserve and both of the big parties. As a result a third party emerged which managed to get a large amount of seats in both houses. The party's candidate for president got 25% of the votes in 2012 and won the election in 2016. The third party fundamentally changed the way politics is done in Washington and resulted in a large change in United States foreign policy. A lot of countries where left to deal with their problems alone. At the beginning, this policy caused havoc and even chaos in different countries around the world which suddenly where shocked by the shortage of American financial and military aid.

  24. To me, what's offensive is the suggestion it's admirable to let everyone who's poor starve to death without trying to help. I think this is qualitatively different from and more extreme than the nuanced alternatives you suggested, with which I tend to agree. I think it's possible to feed hungry poor people without destroying their virtues.

  25. I would vote for a third party a la Matt Damon

  26. A third-party Presidential candidate will never happen. A popular third-party candidate would be maliciously subverted by the system at the risk of losing his life and family.
    KVM Drawer


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