If you work for a big bank, ... what would happen if the bank is broken up? Well, that would be very complicated financially, but the result is probably not that hard to predict. Most obviously, deposits would need to stay in the core bank. What would this mean for the way the core bank works to succeed, the non core products it distributes, and the way its deposits fund investments compared to the way things are now? I suspect less net deposits taken out of the community and more loans made in the community.
The different businesses would be spun off to shareholders or sold. Watch the ball here. The Investment Bank is going to want and need a disproportionate share of the capital if they want to maintain their lifestyles. Absent the cloak of respectability the bank provides, they are going to want to be the next Goldman. Watch the ball. Capital is critical. In fact, as a sort of mind game, I wonder how much capital regulators or the SEC or Moody’s would require? What would that leave for the bank?
***What would the core banks funding cost be if it did not have to worry about the high leverage, senior unsecured bonds and the CDS spreads needed to support those? Maybe the core bank could both make more money and provide better deposit rates to savers. I don’t know. Where is the Congress on this? Why not look at the upside instead of just the fear of systemic risk, important as that is?
Studies consistently cite that the efficiencies (economies) of scale end and $100B or so. If that is the case, does that not make the multi million dollar men at the top of the pyramid the actual problem? Money is diverted from the branch to the Executive ranks, Private Wealth, and the Investment Bank. It is reverse Robin Hood.
So what do the majority of bankers have to fear from a break up? Nothing. It would bring management closer to the customer and the employee, create a better customer experience, more equitable pay, better teamwork, and a return to values oriented banking.
Given this common sense, all branch based folks at the thousand and thousands of branches should write their congressmen and women and Senators and ask for the passage of strong TBTF legislation that would restore dignity to their profession. Let Private Wealth and the I-Bank float on their own. If you are a shareholder in your 401K or otherwise, you will still get a piece of that action. The value of the parts is generally greater than the value of the whole anyway. It is a win-win-win except in the Executive wing and on Wall Street, which is out of touch with Main Street anyway.
Maybe we should organize a million banker March in DC for financial reform. Too bold?
No, not too bold ... much needed.
Actually, you just need to decide that they're not too big to fail, and then make clear they will -- fail that is -- if it comes to that. Meaning shareholders wiped out, management wiped away, creditors dealt with in bankruptcy court.
ReplyDeleteI have taken to calling Obama, O'Bushma because to me he is so much like a fat cat republican.
ReplyDeleteI am amazed that people are still falling for the hypnotic mantra, I mean the campaign slogan of 'hope and change'. I am even more amazed that people still fall for the kabuki theater show that the Democrats & Republicans put on that they really are opposed to each other. When in reality it seems they really work together very closely in smoke filled back rooms.
America is increasingly like a feudal nation now where the serfs, I mean average Americans are increasingly landless, homeless and drowning in debt. And it does not seem that anyone has the courage to stand up to the giant monopolies, oligarchies, cartels or the military instrial complex or either political party.
Another great idea promoted by all the best minds in and out of the banking business.
ReplyDeleteSomething this horrific will never happen.
Just a bunch of hippie liberal tree huggers. Big is vital to the size- obsessed USA. Don't believe me, just look at a pick up truck! The smallest iterations appear to be able to pull a semi- trailer.
The Upper Echelon of the US government LOVES its big banks and will never let them go! They are the training ground for future generations of establishment economic expertise. Where do you think this expertise will come from if not from big banks like Citigruppe?
The Whole Earth Catalog?